Behind in the Count

Jun 17

Hitter Volatility Through Mid-June -

Applying my VOL metric to hitters and teams at mid-season

Apr 23

Does an April Drop in Velocity Predict An Arm Injury? -

Pitchers that were down at least 1 mph in April had an arm injury rate of 11%. Compared to 4% for non-velocity decliners, that’s an increased likelihood of 2.6. The amount of time missed is also quite similar. When an arm injury was sustained after an April velocity decline, pitchers lost about 22 days on average to the injury. When the arm injury was not preceded by a velocity loss? 20 days on average. The only difference was in the number of trips to the disabled list that lasted at least 30 days. For April velocity decliners, there were four trips to the DL longer than 30 days. For non-velocity decliners there was only one such trip.

Apr 19

Rolling out a new Edge% metric -

"A while back, Jeff Zimmerman and I introduced the concept of Edge% — a metric that attempted to quantify the extent to which a pitcher worked the edges of the strike zone. Jeff initially looked at how this applied to Tim Lincecum and how his performance depended to some extent on his ability to pitch to the edges of the plate. I followed up with a high-level piece that compared the performance of pitchers at an aggregate level depending on how extreme their Edge% was in a given season.

While the findings were interesting, they were also a little inconsistent. That’s because Jeff and I independently created two distinct metrics. We decided to combine our efforts (as we have been known to do) and settle on a single, consistent formula. And that’s the focus of this article.”

Apr 02

CC Sabathia's Velocity is Definitely Worth Watching -

Low velocity in April isn’t an automatic signal of trouble, but it’s a signal nonetheless

Mar 31

Is Bill James Right about Ground Ball Pitchers and Injuries? -

Examined the hypothesis that ground ball pitchers may be more injury prone

Feb 23

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Feb 21

[video]

Jan 29

Cano, Granderson, and Other CLIFFORD Candidates for 2013 -

Developed a new metric that flags hitters with a higher likelihood to suffer a major offensive decline in the coming year.

Jan 15

The Difference Pitching on the Edge Makes -

Devised a metric to measure how frequently pitchers throw to the edges and investigated how that correlates to various performance outcomes.

Dec 17

(Re) Introducing Hitter Volatility -

Reintroducing my hitter volatility measure; an attempt to quantify how consistent a hitter’s offensive production is game-to-game.