Behind in the Count

Oct 27

This past August I was a part of the Statistical Analysis panel at the 2013 SABR Conference in Philadephia, along with Dick Cramer, Steve Mann, Vince Gennaro, and Brian Kenny. Here’s video of the panel.

This past August I was a part of the Statistical Analysis panel at the 2013 SABR Conference in Philadephia, along with Dick Cramer, Steve Mann, Vince Gennaro, and Brian Kenny. Here’s video of the panel.

Aug 20

Slides from my presentation at this year’s Saber Seminar in Boston

Slides from my presentation at this year’s Saber Seminar in Boston

Jul 24

More on Called Strikes on the Edge -

Jul 03

Velocity Decline Trends for June, 2012-13 -

Jun 17

Hitter Volatility Through Mid-June -

Applying my VOL metric to hitters and teams at mid-season

Apr 23

Does an April Drop in Velocity Predict An Arm Injury? -

Pitchers that were down at least 1 mph in April had an arm injury rate of 11%. Compared to 4% for non-velocity decliners, that’s an increased likelihood of 2.6. The amount of time missed is also quite similar. When an arm injury was sustained after an April velocity decline, pitchers lost about 22 days on average to the injury. When the arm injury was not preceded by a velocity loss? 20 days on average. The only difference was in the number of trips to the disabled list that lasted at least 30 days. For April velocity decliners, there were four trips to the DL longer than 30 days. For non-velocity decliners there was only one such trip.

Apr 19

Rolling out a new Edge% metric -

"A while back, Jeff Zimmerman and I introduced the concept of Edge% — a metric that attempted to quantify the extent to which a pitcher worked the edges of the strike zone. Jeff initially looked at how this applied to Tim Lincecum and how his performance depended to some extent on his ability to pitch to the edges of the plate. I followed up with a high-level piece that compared the performance of pitchers at an aggregate level depending on how extreme their Edge% was in a given season.

While the findings were interesting, they were also a little inconsistent. That’s because Jeff and I independently created two distinct metrics. We decided to combine our efforts (as we have been known to do) and settle on a single, consistent formula. And that’s the focus of this article.”

Apr 02

CC Sabathia's Velocity is Definitely Worth Watching -

Low velocity in April isn’t an automatic signal of trouble, but it’s a signal nonetheless

Mar 31

Is Bill James Right about Ground Ball Pitchers and Injuries? -

Examined the hypothesis that ground ball pitchers may be more injury prone

Feb 23

[video]